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08/04/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Argonauts' 3-1 start had their fans talking about not only the playoffs, but the potential of making a good run at first in the east. That level of support got shot down in a huge way, courtesy of a 47-10 beat-down by the Montreal Alouettes.
Regardless of how talented Montreal is as a team compared with the rest of the division, Toronto shared its loss with every other East rival, meaning making the playoffs is still a dream worth keeping alive.
MONTREAL ALOUETTES
It's the kind of performance Montreal fans have been dying to see, a complete game in all three areas and for four quarters. And no better time to do it than against the Als' biggest threat in their division.
Anthony Calvillo was nearly flawless, going 30-for-36 for 394 yards and two touchdowns. The real story on offense, however, was Avon Cobourne, who compiled over 100 yards rushing and receiving.
Aside from a Cobourne fumble, the Als as a team were almost perfect. The Toronto defense is not a pushover, but Montreal sure looked like a bully, adding to its lead with points scored throughout the eventual blowout.
The game solidifies Montreal's status at this stage of the year as the best in not only the east, but the entire league. What better way to confirm that distinction than in an upcoming home game against the Saskatchewan Roughriders?
Offensive key to the next game: Their last meeting with the Roughriders saw a combined total of 105 points scored. Montreal will not have as much wiggle room this time around, but Saskatchewan's defense has not improved to the same level as Montreal's since week one. Perhaps more importantly, the Riders' weakness, its special teams, has proven to be a major one. Maintaining better field position through special teams will be crucial. If Calvillo and Cobourne can find the end zone as easily as they did against Toronto, the Alouettes will get their revenge for giving away the game in Week 1.
Defensive key to the next game: Darian Durant's game has slipped into bad Henry Burris territory, with Durant throwing away interceptions as if they were candy.
The Riders' quarterback will look to bounce back and hit his spots this week, and Montreal has to be prepared for the potential gun show that saw Durant pass out nearly 500 yards in the first week of the season.
Look ahead: If they hold out for a win against the Riders, the Als will be on the verge of virtually locking up their third straight East title. Montreal travels to Toronto in Week 7 before heading back home to face off against the struggling Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Going 3-0 over that span is highly probable.
TORONTO ARGONAUTS
There are not a lot of positive things to say about Toronto's effort in Week 5.
Allowing a touchdown on Montreal's opening drive is hardly the way to send the message of being an eastern contender, though admittedly getting that TD back with one of its own the following possession is a terrific response.
Unfortunately for the Argos, that touchdown may be that one positive thing that transpired in what was supposed to be a battle of the best in the East.
The game was the perfect example of what critics believed would happen for Toronto - quarterback Cleo Lemon struggled mightily to connect with his receivers and the o-line failed to provide Lemon with the time he needs to execute.
Perhaps the biggest message to come out of the contest was that the Argonauts will suffer if running back Cory Boyd is stifled.
Toronto has done well to fight for its 3-2 record, though with Winnipeg not too far behind and a Hamilton team likely to eventually find its footing, the Argonauts' hold on second place is so much more precarious all of a sudden.
Offensive key to the next game: Fortunately for the Argos, they travel to Edmonton next to face an out-of-sorts Eskimos side. Yes, Edmonton finally picked up its first win, but it sure wasn't pretty. Boyd will have a better game in Week 6 and likely will carry the Toronto side once again. Having said that, it's now time for Lemon to step out of the shoes of being a serviceable quarterback to one that can put together long drives on his own.
Defensive key to the next game: The Eskimos' greatest problem offensively this season has been a case of the age-old football disease of butterfingers. Edmonton receivers did better last week to finally hold onto some catches, but can that continue? Toronto's defense, in particular its defensive line, may prove to be the story of this game if it can get to Ricky Ray and force the quarterback to throw difficult passes to a struggling receiving corps.
Look ahead: Toronto has the opportunity to make up for its lackluster performance last week when they meet up with Montreal again in Week 8. This time they will be hosts, and so they better hope that advantage will be enough to kick-start the rest of their game. More than likely, Montreal comes in and leaves another reminder of what it means to be top dog.
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS
Almost as surprising as the winning start to Toronto's season has been the less-than-inspiring play of the Ti-Cats. Stumbling out of the gate with a 1-4 record was hardly foreseeable for a team many thought would at least compete with the Als for top billing in the East.
Instead, Hamilton has found new ways to blow it every week. Last week, a terrible third quarter in which it allowed 13 points and scored none proved to be the difference in a 37-24 loss to Saskatchewan. Losing to the Roughriders is hardly something to lose sleep over, but when one of your receivers hits the record books with 16 catches for 272 yards, it's a little harder to feel ok with your game.
Arland Bruce was a machine amongst men, picking up extra yardage as easy as a kid running around trees in a park. Everybody looked like they were standing still.
As strange as Hamilton's season has been, it's about to get even weirder when it faces Winnipeg for the third time.
Offensive key to the next game: The Ti-Cats' only win of the season came against Winnipeg in a solid 28-7 win. Defense won the game, but Glenn's zero interceptions looked even better against his three touchdown passes. Keep the errors to a minimum and another victory is in sight.
Defensive key to the next game: Here is where things get strange. In the first meeting with the Blue Bombers, Hamilton allowed 49 points in an epic 20- point loss. In their second meeting, Winnipeg scored just seven points. So what team shows up in Week 6? Hard to say, but Hamilton would do well to make Steve Jyles scramble. The inexperienced quarterback hasn't quite figured out how to make something out of nothing, which plays right into the Ti-Cats hands'. Or paws, as it were.
Look ahead: Hamilton and Winnipeg will be sick of each other soon, as they square off two weeks in a row. Incredibly crucial games for both sides, with each wanting more than to settle for a split in the home-and-home series. The good news for the Ti-Cats? They get to face Toronto instead of Montreal in Week 8.
WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
There's no doubt the Blue Bombers have a bright future.
The combination of Buck Pierce and Jyles can be a good one, provided Pierce stays healthy and Jyles learns how to use his talents.
Fred Reid is a dynamic running back whose best playing days are ahead of him, while Terence Jeffers-Harris is a 22-year-old receiver with plenty of potential.
The problem with this small sample is that all of the above players are struggling to find consistency. The Peg's offense has been one part awesome, two parts not-so-much. Last week was a dose of the not-so-much, with the attack scoring just twenty points against Calgary in a game that was there for the taking if they could have found that offensive punch.
Offensive key to the next game: Winnipeg was at its worst offensively the last time it faced Hamilton, scoring just seven points. At least there's little place to go but up. The key for Winnipeg to catch up to Toronto in the standings is largely in the hands of veteran receiver Terrence Edwards.
The rule of thumb is that a receiver is only as good as his quarterback. For the league leader in receiving yards, such an excuse is not good enough as he must be a leader on the field to help out a maturing Jyles.
Defensive key to the next game: The Ti-Cats have some talented receivers. David Stala has been solid all year, while Arland Bruce is coming off one of the best games for a receiver in CFL history. With Kevin Glenn's ability to do some damage in the air, the potential for Hamilton to put up some big points is huge. Cut off the air game and force struggling DeAndra Cobb to try and pick up his team on the ground.
Look ahead: With three straight games against eastern opponents, the time is here for Winnipeg to make a move. A road game against Montreal in week eight is hardly the way you want to go into a bye the following week, making its home- and-home series against the Ti-Cats all the more important. Aim for two wins over the next three.
<< Eskimos seek second straight win in bout with Argonauts
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off their first win of the 2010
campaign, the Edmonton Eskimos hope to carry over some of that momentum when
they host the Toronto Argonauts on Friday night at Commonwealth Stadium.
Edmonton, which finis
<< First vs. worst in the West, as Stampeders tangle with Lions
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As the only team in the league still without
a home win in 2010, the British Columbia Lions give it another shot this
weekend as they host the Calgary Stampeders at Empire Field in Vancouver on
Saturday night.
<< Familiar foes do battle as Winnipeg visits Hamilton
Hamilton, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Winless on the road in three tries so far this
season, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats try their luck at home this weekend as they
entertain the Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Ivor Wynne Stadium.
Despite losing two in a row
<< Alouettes host Roughriders in clash of 4-1 teams
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A rematch of the season opener and last year's
Grey Cup title game takes center stage this week, as the Montreal Alouettes
entertain the Saskatchewan Roughriders at McGill Stadium on Friday night.
Saskatchewan
Rangers try to bounce back in Seattle >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Not even the return of batting leader Josh Hamilton could
pull the Texas Rangers to victory last night in the series opener against the
AL West-rival Seattle Mariners.
Maybe Vladimir Guerrero returning to the lineup follow
Blackhawks sign Cullimore, four others >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Blackhawks have signed defenseman
Jassen Cullimore to a one-year contract.
In addition, the Stanley Cup champs also inked goaltender Hannu Toivonen and
forwards Evan Brophey, Nathan Davis and Hu
Olsen takes over D.C. as interim coach; Onalfo dismissed >>
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United announced on Wednesday that
the club has named Ben Olsen as interim head coach following the dismissal of
Curt Onalfo.
D.C. United's technical director, Chad Ashton, will serve as interim a
Five-a-Side: Stephen F. Austin QB Jeremy Moses >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Welcome to Five-a-Side - five questions,
five answers. This is a Q&A feature with an influential person in the FCS, and
will run at the beginning of each month.
If Stephen F. Austin senior quarterback
Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.
As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.
The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.
Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).
But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.
Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.
Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1
Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2
New York Giants - 9 - 2
Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).
Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.
So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.
And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.
They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.
Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.
But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.
Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.
Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.
Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.
Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?
Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.
In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.
Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.
Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.
The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.
The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.
Visit MySportsbook.com for free sportsbook odds RSS feeds go to MySportsbook.com for all your betting football needs.
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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