08/20/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - 2007 SEASON IN REVIEW: Wins in their first three games, including a thrilling 47-45 overtime triumph over Fresno State, had the Aggies feeling pretty good about the prospect of making some serious noise in the Big 12. A 34-17 loss to Miami-Florida had brought the team back to Earth, but wins over Baylor and Oklahoma State to open conference play gave credence to the fact that the Aggies were heading in the right direction. From there however, A&M lost four of its next five games to fall to 6-5 heading into the regular season finale against bitter rival Texas. The Aggies responded by beating the Longhorns, 38-30, earning them a shot at the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Alamo Bowl. That game wound up in favor of PSU, 24-17, meaning A&M finished 7-6 on the year.
Coach Dennis Franchione had resigned just after the win over Texas after five years of unfulfilled promise and a mounting scandal. The Aggies haven't won the Big 12 since 1998, so the decision was made to bring in former Green Bay Packers head coach Mike Sherman to help lead A&M back to the lofty heights those in College Station have been clamoring for for years now. Only time will tell if Sherman is successful. Well, time and a fervent fan base that refuses to accept anything but winning.
2008 ANALYSIS:
OFFENSE: Utilizing the run as its offensive weapon of choice, the Aggies battered more than one opponent into submission last season. They averaged 211.6 ypg and got a sensational effort from junior QB Stephen McGee who in addition to throwing for 2,311 yards and 12 TDs, rushed for a team-best 899 yards and five more scores. McGee is back for another go, as is beefy senior FB Jorvorskie Lane who scored 16 TDs on the ground last year and added another receiving. The starting tailback job belongs to speedy junior Mike Goodson, who is a threat to take it the distance on every touch. Senior Pierre Brown is the lone returning starter at receiver, but he had just 19 grabs last year, none of which resulted in a TD.
Coach Sherman will implement a power running game, but knows it will take time to develop, particularly in light of the fact that he has a young offensive line that boasts just one returning starter, junior guard Michael Shumard. "Regardless of what you do, an inexperienced line, whether you're an option team or a spread offense or West Coast offense or a power offense, it's a challenge. No matter what your scheme, you need a decent offensive line." He continued, "But I do feel like what we're asking them to do and the repetition that we have within our offense, particularly in our running game, will afford those linemen an opportunity to get good at the skill level we need them to get good at."
DEFENSE: Not exactly the "Wrecking Crew" of A&M defenses past, last year's unit was mediocre at best. The Aggies had a particularly tough time defending the pass, permitting 254.9 ypg to rank 92nd in the country. Three starters are back in the secondary, and three of last season's top five tacklers are current defensive backs. Junior SS Jordan Pugh collected 90 stops in '07, and senior Devin Gregg is a tremendous leader capable of making big plays himself.
With a new coach and new defensive strategy, some guys were moved around, among them former DE Von Miller, who at 6-3 and 220 pounds will be better suited as a speed linebacker. Others who could wind up making a splash this season include LBs Matt Featherston, Anthony Lewis and Johnathan Haynes. Up front, expect senior DE Cyril Obiozor to have another solid campaign and for 6-6, 345-pound Kellen Heard to made a huge splash at the tackle spot.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Kicker Matt Szymanski was gold inside 30 yards last year, but anything but outside it so of course consistency will be the key to his success this season. Senior Justin Brantly is back to do the punting after averaging better than 44 yards per boot in '07, while the return game features the talents of junior CB Jordan Peterson. Someone else may end up handling kicks as well, but there are a slew of talented guys on the A&M roster so that area of the game shouldn't be much of a concern.
OUTLOOK: Save for a bout with Miami-Florida at home, the Aggies should get the Sherman-era off to a good start. The Big 12 slate of course offers more than its share of potential pitfalls, among them games against Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Texas. The first two of them are at home, while A&M must travel to Austin for its annual showdown with the Longhorns.
If McGee can develop into more of a pocket passer and the power running game flexes its muscle, the offense should be solid once again. Defensively, there are questions but it will be a quicker unit overall which will help keep up with some of the high-powered offenses calling the Big 12 home at the moment. In the end, expect a winning season and another bowl invite, likely a lower- tiered one.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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